Agility Robotics Is Worth $2.5B—on $1.8M in Sales
A SPAC filing cracks open the humanoid sector's books for the first time. The numbers are striking, and not in the way bulls might hope.
By The Robotics Desk
Agility Robotics generated $1.8 million in net sales in 2025 while burning through roughly $100 million in cash and posting a $140 million operating loss. None of that stopped the company from agreeing to a SPAC merger that values it at $2.5 billion—about 1,400 times its annual revenue. [1]
The numbers come from a freshly filed S-4 with the SEC, submitted as Agility prepares to go public via a merger with Churchill Capital Corp. XI. The deal is structured to generate more than $620 million in gross proceeds: roughly $420 million from Churchill's trust and $200 million from a PIPE led by Foxconn. [1]
Agility's Digit humanoid has logged more than 65,000 operating hours across 9 customer sites, and the company claims more than $300 million in multi-year Digit v5 orders from a single customer. Those orders have not yet turned into revenue that comes close to supporting today's valuation. [1]
The gap between what a company earns today and what investors are willing to bet it will earn tomorrow is never more visible than in a SPAC prospectus. Strip away the projections and what remains is a stark portrait of an industry still running on conviction.
Agility's preferred commercial model is Robots-as-a-Service: the company retains ownership of each Digit and charges customers about $8,500 per month—roughly $102,000 annually—plus a $25,000 deployment fee, for access to the robot, software, and maintenance. Over a five-year lifespan, that works out to about $535,000 in revenue per robot. Customers who prefer to own outright pay around $200,000 upfront, plus a $20,000 deployment fee and roughly $36,000 a year in software and maintenance costs. [1]
The S-4 lays out an ambitious deployment trajectory: around 800 Digit v5 units in 2027, 7,000 by 2030, and up to 25,000 by 2035. At the $8,500 monthly RaaS rate, 25,000 robots would translate to roughly $2.55 billion in annual subscription revenue. To put that in perspective, Agility would need to grow annual revenue roughly 57-fold just to match the revenue from 1,000 deployed RaaS robots. [1]
Agility itself flags the uncertainty: actual contracts, deployment timing, pricing, and utilization could all differ from the projections. The company acknowledges that getting from here to there means driving down Digit's manufacturing costs and proving that customers will use humanoids at scale. [1]
The gap between revenue and valuation is not unique to Agility. Figure, Apptronik, 1X, and other U.S.-based humanoid makers have also raised large funding rounds at high valuations—but because they remain private, they haven't opened their books. The closest recent data point from a peer comes from China: Unitree went public on Shanghai's STAR Market in mid-August, closed its first day of trading 460% higher, and raised 6.1 billion yuan, around $905 million U.S., in its IPO. [1]
When a sector moves this fast, the spreadsheet is always a guess. What a filing like this really reveals is not a company's present value but the collective imagination of everyone willing to fund the gap between today's warehouse floor and tomorrow's fully staffed robot fleet.
For Agility, the SPAC structure means the public markets are being asked to price a company on its roadmap rather than its receipts. The S-4 shows a business spending $111 million to run operations that returned $1.8 million—a ratio that only makes sense if the 25,000-robot scenario is treated as fact rather than illustration. Investors betting on Digit are, in effect, betting that humanoid labor becomes cheap enough, reliable enough, and trusted enough to fill warehouses at scale before the cash runs out. [1]