The US Is Quietly Vanishing From the Taiwan Strait

Publicly declared naval transits have fallen by half under Trump 2.0—while Chinese warships circle Taiwan daily.

By The Defense Desk

The US Navy has made just three publicly declared Taiwan Strait transits since the start of the second Trump administration—and current rates project only 14 for the full term, a 50 percent decline from Trump 1.0 and a 56 percent decline from the Biden administration. [1]

The drop is happening against a backdrop of intensifying Chinese pressure. [1]

In December 2025, high-intensity Chinese military exercises around Taiwan featured, for the first time, a mock comprehensive air and naval blockade of the island. [1] Taiwan's own forces have been drilling in response: on August 11, the ROCAF conducted a Patriot missile reload drill in northern Taiwan, testing wartime ammunition resupply, while the Army Special Operations Command ran a nighttime ambush exercise in New Taipei. [2]

Some Pentagon observers attribute the decline to 'silent transits'—unannounced passages the Navy declines to publicize to ease tensions with Beijing. [1] But undisclosed passages carry a different strategic weight: publicly declared transits contest China's claim that the Strait constitutes its territorial waters, a claim virtually no other country recognizes. [1]

Visibility is the point. A signal no one sees does not reassure allies, deter adversaries, or anchor the norms that keep contested waterways open.

[1]

A sudden drop in them can degrade perceptions of American priorities and credibility in both friendly and hostile capitals.Allen Zhang & Charity Ihrman